BOSTON, Dec. 4, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — The recent report from IDTechEx Research “Drones 2018-2038: Components, Technologies, Roadmaps, Market Forecasts” provides a comprehensive analysis of the drone market, considering components, technologies, application roadmaps and markets. This report takes short-, medium- and long-term views. More specifically it provides the following:
Business trends in the drone industry: IDTechEx consider annual investment in 120 drone hardware and/or software companies, clearly showing that investment rose rapidly then peaked, consistent with the hype curve. The report also clearly shows that the composition of the investment shifted, emphasizing software/service at the expense of the commoditized hardware. The impact of the price wars in the drone business landscape is explored. Here the report shows that the leading suppliers effectively forced an industry consolidation, leaving others with no choice but to give up their hardware play and/or to rethink their strategies to find a differentiated offering in a specific commercial drone and/or software/service space. Insights are offered into how future dynamics are likely to unfold.
Drone technology/components: The existing drone technology is quantitively analyzed with more than 60 drones analyzed to understand trends in drone prices, drone sizes, battery chemistries/capacities, flight times and ranges, body material compositions, various navigational or applicational sensors, electric motor capacity, electronic speed controllers and so on. This chapter provides a quantitative understanding of the drone technology as it is today at both the drone and the drone component levels.
Sensors in drones: Two key trends are considered. The first is the evolution towards full beyond-line-of-sight autonomous navigation. The second is the evolution of drones well beyond just flying photography cameras. For the first trend, a roadmap is developed showing how the onboard sensors and the supporting infrastructure need to evolve to achieve full autonomy. To this end, also considered are IMUs, GPS, camera, infrared, ultrasound, radar and LIDAR sensors. For the second trend sensors such as thermal, multispectral, hyperspectral, gas and other sensors are covered.
Software and analytics: Software and analytics are key to drones. In this study, three tiers of software are considered: flight control, mission planning & management, and data analytics. For each tier, the evolution of capability, covering the past, the present, and the future is considered. For example, for flight control, the report examines how the capability is evolving from basic remote-control towards full autonomous flight via see-avoid/track, etc. The roadmap of software for each application sector is explored. Here too the past, the present, and the future are all assessed, outlining the software capabilities today and those of the future. The timelines involved reflect IDTechEx’s understanding of the technology and its challenges. Furthermore, the impact of open source and the recent partnerships in this landscape are examined.
Regulation: The report provides a brief overview of the past and the present of regulation in key territories before offering insights into how the regulations might and should be evolved. Regulations currently impose many constraints on drones, shaping their potential market in various applications. Furthermore, technology capability is currently pushing ahead of regulation. Therefore legislators worldwide have difficult calls to make to ensure the right balance between commercial interest, public safety, and personal privacy.
Applications: The report considers more than 12 drone commercial applications including agricultural, research & rescue, inspection, delivery/logistics, real estate, construction, people-carrying, etc. The readiness and hype level of each application is analyzed. We assess the drone’s value proposition and challenges in each application. Furthermore, a roadmap is provided, outlining the status of drones in each sector today and considering its short-, medium- and long-term futures. This analysis feeds into the timelines which IDTechEx use in their market forecasts.
Market forecasts (application-level): Short-, medium- and long-term forecasts are provided, in value and unit numbers, for the following sectors:
- Agriculture (hardware and software)
- Real estate
- Inspection (hardware and software)
- Construction software
- People carrying
To develop the forecasts, IDTechEx carefully assesses the technology adoption curve of drones in each market. Their insight and research enable them to estimate the size and position of drones in the technology adoption of each industry. They also build in reasonable replacement cycles in their models. All this enables them to build forecast models, providing short-, medium- and long-term forecasts for drones in unit numbers and value.
Market forecasts (component level): Short-, medium- and long-term forecasts are provided in value and unit numbers for the following drone components:
- Electronic speed control (low-, mid- and high-rate)
- Electric motor (low-, mid-, and high-power)
- Navigation Sensors
- Camera (Navigation)
- Camera (FPV)
- Camera (Filming)
- Thermal Camera
- Multispectral Camera
Company profiles: IDTechEx’s research is based on extensive primary and secondary research, interviewing many companies in the business. In this report, full profiles are provided for around 30 drone companies including Agribotix, Deadalean, TwingTec, Yuneec, UniFly, UAV Factory, Precision Hawk, AeroVironment, Autel Robotics, Ehang, Exyn technologies, Flyability, Parrot, DJI, Airware, 3D Robotics, Aeryon Lab, DroneShield, vHive, Hoversurf, Nightingale Security, Sky-Futures, OPTELOS, SiteAware, Kray Technologies, DelairTech, Mothership Aero.
Table of Contents for Drones 2018-2038: Components, Technologies, Roadmaps, Market Forecasts
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1. Our focus is on consumer, prosumer and professional drones
1.2. Drones: DJI’s aggressive low-margin strategy commoditizes the hardware game
1.3. Drones commoditize: the shift towards software and vertically-focused analytics
1.4. Range of drone price on the market
1.5. Range of drone sizes on the market
1.6. Battery capacity limits have created a niche for hybrid drones
1.7. Drone price vs flight time
1.8. Sensor fusion: towards navigational autonomy
1.9. Sensors : more sensors to be used in basic drones
1.10. Sensors: moving beyond just a flying camera
1.11. Short-, medium-, and long-term market forecast by application
1.12. Hype cycle for drone applications
1.13. Maturity level of airframe, sensor, and software for different applications
1.14. What is most needed technology for succeeding in each application?
1.15. Drones in agriculture: past, present and future
1.16. Mapping applications roadmap
1.17. Search and rescue: past, present and future
1.18. Delivery and Logistics: past, present and future
1.19. People carrying drones: past, present and future
2. OVERVIEW OF RECENT BUSINESS TRENDS IN THE DRONE INDUSTRY
2.1. Drones: dominant designs begin to emerge
2.2. Drones: moving past the hype?
2.3. Drones: company formation slows down
2.4. Drones: global geographical spread of companies
2.5. Consumer/prosumer drone sales boomed from 2012/2013 (inflection point)
2.6. Drones: DJI’s aggressive low-margin strategy commoditizes the hardware game
2.7. Drone commoditization: price wars lead to consolidation
2.8. Drone commoditization forces a pivot towards software and/or commercial?
2.9. Drones commoditize: the shift towards software and vertically-focused analytics
3. ANALYSIS OF OFF-THE-SHELF DRONES : SIZE, PRICE, BATTERY SIZE, FLIGHT TIME, COLLISION AVOIDANCE TECHNOLOGY, MATERIALS, ETC.
3.1. Range of drone price on the market
3.2. Range of drone sizes on the market
3.3. Battery lifetime limit has created a niche for hybrid drones
3.4. Drone price vs flight time
3.5. Which battery technology is used in existing drones?
3.6. Common collision avoidance systems currently used in drones
3.7. Different collision avoidance sensors’ characteristics
3.8. Market share of different ranging sensor technologies on drones today
3.9. Multirotor drone body material vs diagonal distance
3.10. Evolution of drone material from plastic to composites depending on size
3.11. Evolution of Electronic Speed Controller with drone size
4. SENSORS IN DRONES: NOW AND FUTURE
4.1. Hardware opportunity: specialized sensors
4.2. Navigation sensors
4.3. Sensor fusion: towards navigational autonomy
4.4. Sensors : more sensors to be used in basic drones
4.5. Navigational sensors on drones: ultrasonic
4.6. Navigational sensors on drones: infrared
4.7. Navigational sensors on drones: Inertia measurement unit (IMU) on drones
4.8. Navigational sensors on drones: GPS on drones
4.9. Application sensors
4.10. Sensors: moving beyond just a flying camera
4.11. Highlighting innovative sensors
5. DRONES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE SOFTWARE SIDE
5.1. Different layers of software
5.2. Drones on-board software: increasing autonomy
5.3. Planning and management software
5.4. Planning and management software: increasing capabilities
5.5. People carrying drones: a major software opportunity
5.6. Analytics software
5.7. Vertical or horizontal positioning? Which is better?
5.8. Software roadmap: drones in agriculture
5.9. Software roadmap: drone mapping (surveying, inspection, mining, real estate, 3D modeling, etc.)
5.10. Software roadmap: search and rescue
5.11. Software roadmap: delivery and logistics
5.12. Software roadmap: human carrying drone
5.13. Software landscape: DJI comes in, consolidation takes place
5.14. Using closed vs open source code
5.15. Open source movement in drone industry
5.16. Drone registration history in US
5.17. Increase in partnership, but not in hardware
5.18. Summary of important partnerships
6. DRONES: REGULATIONS
6.1. Regulations: what are the concerns? Who tries to regulate?
6.2. Recent state of regulations
6.3. Regulation comparison in some countries
6.4. Common operational limitations and technical prerequisites
6.5. VLOS, EVLOS, and BVLOS
6.6. Drone registration, flight approval, and pilot certificate
6.7. Hidden forces on regulation
6.8. US regulations: From 333 section exemptions to part 107 rules
6.9. Requirements of Part 107 in detail
6.10. Who owns the airspace above the land?
6.11. Obey FAA or state governments?
6.12. CAAC (China’s FAA) regulations
6.13. BVLOS = Non-Cooperative detect and avoid
7. APPLICATIONS AND ROADMAP
7.1. Short-, medium-, and long-term market forecast by application (I)
7.2. Hype cycle for drone applications
7.3. Maturity level of airframe, sensor, and software for different applications
7.4. What is most needed technology for succeeding in each application?
8. DRONE APPLICATIONS: AGRICULTURE
8.1. Agriculture: a major market for drones?
8.2. The rise of data in agriculture
8.3. Data to transform agriculture’s value chain
8.4. Agricultural mapping: are drones really suitable?
8.5. Satellite vs. drone mapping and scouting
8.6. Common drones used in agriculture for data acquisition
8.7. Agricultural drones: emergence of data analytics firms
8.8. Drones in agriculture: going beyond data acquisition
8.9. Unmanned drones in rice field pest control in Japan
8.10. Unmanned drones and helicopters for field spraying
8.11. New breed of drone sprayers emerge
8.12. Comparing different agricultural drones on the market
8.13. Drones in agriculture: past, present and future
9. DRONE APPLICATIONS: MAPPING AND MODELLING (FORESTRY, MINING, CONSTRUCTION, REAL ESTATE, INSPECTION, SURVEYING, ETC.)
9.1. Drone mapping and modelling
9.4. 3D Mapping and modelling
9.5. Land surveying
9.6. Real estate
9.9. Mapping applications roadmap
10. DRONE APPLICATIONS: EMERGENCY AND RESEARCH & RESCUE
10.1. Emergency management
10.2. Search and rescue: past, present and future
11. DRONE APPLICATIONS: DELIVERY AND LOGISTICS
11.1. Delivery and Logistics: past, present and future
11.2. Why drone-based last mile delivery?
11.3. What different companies think about drone-based delivery?
11.4. Trends in charts: rise of e-commerce, fall of department stores, and accelerated closure of commercial real estates
11.5. Development timeline of drone use in last mile or remote area delivery
11.6. Amazon: Will it make drones as common as mail trucks in the future?
11.7. Matternet: transition from humanitarian remote delivery to commercial delivery in Europe?
11.8. Zipline: fix-wing drones making medina delivery to remote areas
12. DRONE APPLICATIONS: CARRYING PEOPLE
12.1. People carrying
12.2. People carrying drones: past, present and future
13. DRONE MARKET FORECASTS (HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE)
13.1. Consumer drones: ten-year market forecast
13.2. Procedure explained
13.3. Agricultural drones: ten-year market forecast
13.4. Drones in Real estate: ten-year market forecast
13.5. Drones in construction: ten-year market forecasts
13.6. Inspection market: ten-year market forecasts
13.7. Emergency market
13.8. Drone delivery market
13.9. Drone People carrying market
13.10. Total drone hardware market by application: short, medium and long-term forecasts
13.11. Total drone software market by application: short, medium and long-term forecasts
13.12. Total drone hardware market by application in unit numbers: short, medium and long-term forecasts
13.13. Summarizing table
13.14. Comparing drone aggregated market value with technology giants and Saudi Arabia’s oil market value
14. FORECASTS FOR COMPONENTS IN DRONES
14.1. Electronic Speed Controllers market in drones split by current rating (low, mid and high): short, medium and long-term forecasts
14.2. Brushless DC motor market in drones (ten year forecast) by power range
14.3. Motor Brushless DC motor market in drones (ten year forecast) by power range
14.4. Brushless DC Motor market in drones (ten year forecast) by power range
14.5. Gimbals in drones: short, medium and long-term forecasts
14.6. HD video camera market in drones: short, medium and long-term forecasts
14.7. Cameras for First Person View(FPV) and Navigation: short, medium and long-term forecasts
14.8. Thermal and multispectral camera market: short, medium and long-term forecasts
14.9. GPS module for drone market: short, medium and long-term forecasts
14.10. Lidar for drone market: short, medium and long-term forecasts
14.11. Radar for drones market: short, medium and long-term forecasts
14.12. IMUs in drones: short, medium and long-term forecasts
14.13. ADS-B transponder for drone: short, medium and long-term forecasts
15. COMPANY PROFILES
15.1. 3D Robotics
15.3. Aeryon Lab
15.11. Exyn technologies
15.14. Kray Technologies
15.15. Mothership Aero
15.16. Nightingale Security
15.19. Precision Hawk
15.22. Stream Technologies
15.24. UAV Factory
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If you have any questions about this report, please the report team at research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com/dronetech for more information.
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